Mortgage Rates Decline as Fed Continues to Taper
Mortgage rates continue to decline following 10 year U.S. Treasury yields lower. Average 30 year mortgage refinance rates are at 4.22 percent, down from the prior week's average 30 year mortgage rate of 4.30 percent. So far in 2014 average 30 year mortgage rates have fallen more than 30 basis points and 10 year bond yields have fallen 40 basis points.
Lower interest rates wasn't supposed to be the trend in 2014 as the Federal Reserve continues to taper their bond purchases and the unemployment rate ticks lower. Economic growth hasn't been on fire which has kept a lid on inflation and interest rates. In fact this week's decline in bond rates can be linked to investors fleeing to the safety of U.S. Treasuries as the trouble in Ukraine intensifies.
Low rates won't last forever and rates will eventually move higher in 2014. The Fed's purchases have dwindled to $45 billion a month, down from $85 billion a month in 2014. If the Fed continues to lower their purchases by $10 billion a month after each Fed meeting, by the October meeting they will have stopped buying these securities.
The Fed's purchases does have some impact on interest rates but the bigger impact is economic growth. The first indication of better growth came this past week when the Labor Department reported 288,000 jobs created and the unemployment rate falling to 6.3 percent in the month of April. Forecasts were for 200,000 jobs being created and an unemployment rate of 6.6 percent.
If this trend continues bond rates will move higher and mortgage rates will also increase. The future direction of mortgage rates is higher for 2014 and beyond. By the end of this year, 30 year mortgage rates are forecasted to be around 5.00 percent. You should lock in a mortgage rate now if you're planning on buying a home. If you're thinking about refinancing your current mortgage, you should try to do so before rates move higher.
Mortgage rates today on 30 year loans are averaging 4.22 percent but there are many lenders quoting 30 year rates below the average. In our database of rates, we see many lenders quoting 30 year refinance rates around 4.00 percent. As you can see in most states listed below, there is at least one lender quoting 30 year rates below 4.00 percent.
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